University of Otago · Ōtepoti Dunedin · Founded 2026
DIAL is a research laboratory at the University of Otago. We pair management science with decision science: optimisation, forecasting and simulation on one side; risk, judgement and trade-offs on the other. We work with organisations on the decisions that are too important to leave to habit.
Our approach
Analytics tells you what the data says. Decision intelligence asks the harder question: what should we do, given what we know, what we don't, and what it costs to be wrong. Three things have to be true for that answer to hold up.
We build an explicit model of your decision: what you control, what you don't, and the consequences of each path. Optimisation finds the best option. Simulation shows what happens when the world refuses to cooperate. Forecasts come with their uncertainty attached, never hidden.
Every model meets a human who has to act on it. We study how people actually weigh risk, read evidence and trade off competing goals, then design processes and tools that work with that judgement instead of against it.
A decision is not finished when it is made. We record what was decided, what was expected, and what actually happened, so each decision calibrates the next. Good judgement is a measurable, improvable skill.
Work with us
DIAL is independent, university-based and outcome-tracked. We have no software to sell you and no quota to hit. We take on work where the decision matters and the evidence can be made to count.
For organisations
A forecast nobody trusts. A roster that always needs rescuing. A capital choice with six stakeholders and no shared view of risk. We scope the problem with you, then work it as a commercial project, a co-funded study, or a supervised student engagement.
For students & researchers
Work on decisions that organisations actually have to make, with academic supervision and a clear brief. Every opportunity on the DIAL Broker is vetted by the lab before you see it, and you are matched on skills, level and availability rather than on who you know.
For funders & partners
Fund student project work or research on a decision problem you care about. Every placement the lab brokers is tracked to its outcome, so you can see what your support produced.
How an engagement runs
A conversation about the decision, who owns it, and what has been tried. We come back with how we see it: the choice, the constraints, the cost of getting it wrong.
What is in and out, what data we need, who is on the team, and how the work is funded: commercial, co-funded, or a supervised student project through the Broker.
Models, experiments and prototypes, with regular working sessions. You see the reasoning as it forms, not a reveal at the end.
A recommendation with its uncertainty stated plainly, plus the tools, documentation and training your team needs to keep making the decision well after we leave.
Capabilities
The methods below are the lab's working toolkit. Most projects draw on two or three of them; the craft is in knowing which, and in saying honestly what each can and cannot tell you.
Probabilistic forecasts with prediction intervals you can plan against, and honest backtests.
Rosters, routes, inventory and capacity decisions solved to proven quality, with the trade-offs made visible.
Discrete-event and agent-based models that let you rehearse change before you commit to it.
Network, sourcing and resilience decisions grounded in two decades of operations research.
Structured scenario work and stress tests that tell you where a plan breaks and what it costs to harden it.
Transparent methods for choices with many stakeholders and no single bottom line.
Field and lab experiments on how your people judge, forecast and choose, and training that measurably improves it.
Lightweight dashboards and tools built around the decision, handed over with the code and the manual.
The DIAL Broker Opening soon
Organisations post internships, capstones, consulting briefs, thesis topics and research projects. Students, faculty and alumni are matched to them on skills, level and availability. The lab stands between the two and vets everything.
Why DIAL
We are a university laboratory, not a vendor. Our only interest in your decision is getting it right, and we will tell you when the evidence does not support what you were hoping to hear.
Our methods are the ones we publish and teach. Every recommendation arrives with its assumptions and its uncertainty stated, so you can defend the decision, not just announce it.
Projects and placements are tracked to their outcomes and reported back. We hold ourselves to the same loop-closing standard we recommend to everyone else.
People
Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Management
Lincoln's research combines management science (optimisation, forecasting, simulation) with decision science (risk, judgement, multi-criteria trade-offs), with a long focus on supply chains and operations. He joined Otago in 2017 after roles at the University of Auckland, AUT and Curtin University, and serves as Associate Editor of the Journal of Supply Chain Management.
Director, Data Science and AI Innovation · Lighthouse, KPMG New Zealand
Abtin leads data science and AI innovation for KPMG's Lighthouse practice in Auckland. His research sits where machine learning meets multi-criteria decision analysis: methods for choosing well when there are many criteria, many stakeholders and incomplete data, published in journals including Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence and Annals of Operations Research. He brings the industry side of the lab: real decisions, real data and the discipline of delivery.
The lab is hosted at Otago Business School and draws on faculty across the Business School and the wider University as projects require.
Contact
One paragraph is enough to start. Tell us the decision, who has to make it, and what is at stake if it goes wrong. We will come back to you with a view on whether and how we can help.
hello@decision.nz
Decision Intelligence and Analytics Laboratory
Otago Business School, University of Otago
Ōtepoti Dunedin, Aotearoa New Zealand
The Broker opens soon. Email us with your level, skills and the kind of work you are after and we will let you know the day it goes live.